Listed below are the computations for 2016 for
the expected dates of New Moon visibility from Israel. The
possible projected dates for the Appointed Times for 2016 are
given in a second table below the New Moons table.
PLEASE NOTE:
The "Date of Visibility" column dates are the dates on
which the New Moon is expected to be seen--beginning at sunset
of the listed day. All dates listed are to be reckoned
from sunset of listed day and date through the next
day at sunset in the following New Moon table.
|
New Moon |
Date of Visibility |
Sunset |
Moon Set |
Lag Time |
% of Illum. |
Moon Alt. |
Sun Alt. |
VN |
Sighted? |
| 11th | Monday, January 11, 2016 |
4:54 |
6:32 |
38 min. |
3.08 % |
17.7 |
-19.8 |
222.3 |
Yes |
|
12th |
Tuesday, February 9, 2016 |
5:20 |
6:25 |
65 min. |
1.47 % |
12.0 |
-13.5 |
140.0 |
Yes |
|
1st |
Thursday, March 10, 2016 |
5:44 |
7:25 |
101 min. |
3.71 % |
19.7 |
-21.4 |
245.0 |
Yes |
| 2nd | Friday, April 8, 2016 |
6:03 |
7:18 |
75 min. |
2.31 % |
14.2 |
-5.4 |
172.0 |
Hazy |
|
3rd |
Monday, May 7, 2016* | 6:24 |
7:11 |
47 min. |
1.34 % |
8.48 |
-9.15 |
103.3 |
Yes |
|
4th |
Monday, June 6, 2016 | 6:42 |
8:00 |
98 min. |
3.65 % |
14.3 |
-13.6 |
190.1 |
Yes
|
|
5th |
Tuesday, July 5, 2016* | 6:48 |
7:32 |
44 min. |
2.08 % |
7.85 |
-7.99 |
107.8 |
Yes
|
|
6th |
Thursday, August 4, 2016 | 6:33 |
7:33 |
66 min. |
3.71 %. |
11.6 |
-11.6 |
165.9 |
Yes
|
|
7th |
Friday, September 2, 2016* | 6:01 |
6:43 |
42 min. |
1.69 % |
7.69 |
-8.63 |
101.8 |
Yes
|
|
8th |
Sunday, October 2, 2016 |
5:22 |
6:23 |
61 min. |
2.56 % |
11.5 |
-13.0 |
152.2 |
Yes
|
|
9th |
Tuesday, November 1, 2016* | 4:49 |
6:12 |
83 min. |
3.33 % |
14.9 |
-17.3 |
200.8 |
Yes |
|
10th |
Wednesday, November 30, 2016 |
4:35 |
5:35 |
60 min. |
1.27 % |
10.4 |
-11.8 |
123.8 |
Yes
|
|
11th |
Friday, December 30, 2016 | 4:45 |
5:59 |
74 min. |
1.80 % |
13.0 |
-14.7 |
144.4 |
Yes
|
|
12th |
Sunday, January 29, 2017 | 5:11 |
6:43 |
92 min. |
2.89 % |
17.0 |
-19.0 |
210.7 |
Yes
|
|
13th |
Monday, February 27, 2017 | 5:35 |
6:33 |
58 min |
1.32 % |
10.7 |
-12.2 |
125.8 |
Yes
|
|
1st |
Wednesday, March 29, 2017 | 5:57 |
7:30 |
93 min. |
3.46 % |
18.1 |
-19.4 |
225.4 |
Yes
|
* Monday, May 7, 2016 - It is possible
that the moon may not be visible until the next evening. Here are
the stats for that date: On Tuesday evening (May 8), we
expect a 6:24 pm sunset & 8:17 pm moon set (therefore, a lag
time of 113 minutes), a 5.41% of illumination, with a lunar
altitude at sunset of 21.4 degrees and a solar altitude of -20.7
at moonset. VN = 282.4
* Tuesday, July 5, 2016 - It is possible
that the moon may not be visible until the next evening. Here are
the stats for that date: On Wednesday evening (July 6), we
expect a 6:48 pm sunset & 8:18 pm moon set (therefore, a lag
time of 90 minutes), a 6.23% of illumination, with a lunar
altitude at sunset of 17.4 degrees and a solar altitude of -15.7
at moonset. VN = 254.4
* Friday, September 2, 2016 - It is possible that the moon may not be visible until the next evening. Here are the stats for that date: On Thursday evening (September 3), we expect a 6:00 pm sunset & 7:17 pm moon set (therefore, a lag time of 77 minutes), a 5.16% of illumination, with a lunar altitude at sunset of 14.9 degrees and a solar altitude of -15.8 at moonset. VN = 221.7
* Tuesday, November 1, 2016 - The
moon may possibly be visible one evening earlier, but most
likely not. Here are the stats for that date: On Monday
evening (October 31), we expect a 4:50 pm sunset & 5:34 pm
moon set (therefore, a lag time of 44 minutes), a 0.86% of
illumination, with a lunar altitude at sunset of 7.87 degrees and
a solar altitude of -9.12 at moonset. VN = 91.83
|
Event |
begins sunset of |
ends sunset of |
|
Passover (Lord's Supper) Aviv 14 |
Wednesday, March 23 |
Thursday, March 24 |
|
Feast of Unleavens (1st day) |
Thursday, March 24 |
Friday, March 25 |
| Elevation Sheaf Day (aka "wave sheaf") |
Saturday, March 26 |
Sunday, March 27 |
| Feast of Unleavens (7th day) |
Tuesday, April 18 |
Wednesday, April 19 |
| Pentecost |
Saturday, May 14 |
Sunday, May 15 |
| Day of Shouting (aka "Trumpets") |
Friday, September 2 |
Saturday, September 3 |
| Day of Atonement |
Sunday, September 11 |
Monday, September 12 |
| Feast of Tabernacles (1st day) |
Friday, September 16 |
Saturday, September 17 |
| 8th Day Assembly |
Friday, September 23 |
Saturday, September 24 |
Understanding the Calculations
Visibility Number (VN) is the difference between the sun and moon setting times plus 27 times the illuminated percent of the moon plus 5.5 times the altitude of the moon at sunset minus 5 times the altitude of the sun at moonset, all divided by 1.7.
If the VN is:
* less
than 88 then the New Moon will not be seen
* between 88 and 100, it will probably not
be seen
* between 100 and 112, it will probably be seen
* anything greater than 112, it will be seen in reasonable
conditions.
EXAMPLE: The sun will set in Jerusalem at 6:37. The moon will set at 7:36. This is a 59 minute lag time (lag time = the time between sunset and moonset) -- plenty of time for the sky to darken enough after sunset for the moon to be sighted. 2.39% of the lunar surface will be illuminated. And the moon's altitude at sunset will be 11.4 degrees. The sun's altitude at moonset will be -12.6 degrees.
So using the calculations, we have 59 [lag time] + (27 x 2.39 = 64.53) [27 times illuminated percent] + (5.5 x 11.4 = 62.7) [5.5 times lunar altitude] - (5 x -12.6 = -63) [5 times sun's altitude] divided by 1.7 = 146.6
As seen above, anything over 112 should be visible (the higher the number, the greater the visibility), and we have a VN of 146.6 -- hence, New Moon!
Email: Brian Hoeck
©2016 Truth On The Web Ministries: All the articles originated by Kenneth Hoeck and/or Brian Hoeck may be freely distributed or mirrored as long as presented in their entirety (including this statement), attributed to Truth on The Web, and proper author credit given.
See also Projected Appointed Times for 2001-2030
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